John Sarich says he is startingto think more these days about what might replace the AffordableCare Act (ACA) public health insurance exchange system.

Sarich, vice president of strategy at VUE Software, aCoconut Creek, Fla.-based insurance distributor management softwarecompany, prefers ACA replacer proposals based on health savingsaccounts and similar types of personal health accounts.

But, in connection with his role at VUE, he tries to look atU.S. insurance market trends as coolly as he can.

In May 2013, when even most exchange observers who hatedthe ACA were assuming that the U.S. Department of Health and HumanServices and state-based exchange programs could get healthinsurance sales websites up and running in time for the openenrollment period for 2014, Sarich warned the exchange builderswere already close to blowing through their integration anddeadlines.

READ: Are private exchanges really the next bigthing?

The company is working harder at expanding both its career agentand its broker distribution channels.

In November, Sarich predicted that, whatever health insurershappen to dislike about ACA effects on the commercial healthinsurance market, they are more likely to push for a replacementthat resembles the Medicare Advantage system — with privateinsurers providing administrative services and assuming a modestamount of claim risk for a government program — than to pushfor a system with less government involvement.

Now, Sarich said, he believes he's seeing the end of insurerinterest in this version of ACA World.

"They don't see the long-term future of it," Sarich.

Many of the surviving state-based exchanges "are basically nowstarved for money," Sarich said. "Most of them are on their lastlegs. The program never really went anywhere. It was designed to bea media blitz."

For a look at some other things Sarich said, read on:

1. The private exchanges he works with seem to be doingwell.

Some ACA exchange boards are secretive, but others post largeamounts of performance data.

Few private exchange managers post much information about theperformance of their operations.

Some have speculated that private exchanges might be sufferingat least as many technical and management problems as the ACAexchanges. Some survey reports have suggested thatemployer interest in private exchanges as a defense against risinghealth benefits costs might be dropping.

Sarich said he has worked with a few private exchanges andbelieves they're doing well.

At the exchange operated by London-based Aon plc, for example,agents and brokers are welcome, and producers can help clientschoose from a menu of 50 to 60 carriers, Sarich said.

The agents using the system "are very happy," Sarich said. "Theyget paid. That seems to be working."

Sarich said one thing the ACA exchanges, and the early privateexchanges, have done is shown insurers and others that there ismoney to be made in the health insurance exchange business, if theexchange managers do things the right way.

Related: Private exchange use doubles

2. He thinks the dollar value of health agent compensation persale may be holding steady in the off-exchange market.

Sarich said he believes the recent announcements aboutindividual health agent commission cuts have been about problemswith ACA exchange administration and risk problems, not aboutinsurers pushing producers out of the U.S. health insurancesystem.

Few issuers really want any more exchange business, Sarichsaid.

Many of the agents who are still in the game are moving tofee-based practices, Sarich said.

Outside of the ACA exchange system, when insurers are payingcommissions, the commissions may be falling as a percentage ofpremiums, but, for the most part, he said, he believes the dollaramounts producers are getting per policy sold are comparable towhat they were several years ago.

Related: Private exchanges expected to takeoff

3. He thinks private exchange systems may be helping insurerspay health agents faster.

Sarich said one advantage of moving to a health insurancedistribution system based on private exchange programs is thatexchange systems can set up agent onboarding and compensationsystems that speed up the compensation payment process.

One insurer that tried a private exchange found it could paycommissions to 300 agents almost instantaneously, Sarich said.