(Bloomberg) -- This year could see a geopolitical crisis onthe scale of the financial crash a decade ago, Eurasia Groupwarned in its annual outlook.

Describing global political challenges as “daunting,”the New York-based political risk consultancy said that “if wehad to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis -- thegeopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown -- it feelslike 2018."

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The biggest uncertainty surrounds China’s move to fill a vacuumas U.S. influence continues to decline, stoking tensions betweenthe two powers, it said. That’s likely to affect economics aswell.

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“We see a much greater fragmentation of the global marketplacebecause governments are becoming moreinterventionist,” Eurasia President Ian Bremmer said in aBloomberg Television interview with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua.“Part of that is because the Chinese have an alternative model fortheir investments and they’re increasingly going to be seen as themost important driver of other economies around the world who willalign themselves more with Beijing than with Washington.”

Here are five of Eurasia’s biggest worries in 2018:

1. China

President Xi Jinping’s successful consolidation of authority ishelping him to fill the gap created by U.S. President DonaldTrump’s move away from Washington-led multilateralism. In areassuch as trade and investment, technology and values, China issetting international standards with less resistance than everbefore.

“For most of the West, China is not an appealing substitute,”Eurasia said. “But for most everybody else, it is a plausiblealternative. And with Xi ready and willing to offer thatalternative and extend China’s influence, that’s the world’sbiggest risk this year."

2. Miscalculations

There are too many places where a misstep or misjudgment couldprovoke serious international conflict. Cyberattacks, North Korea,Syria, Russia and terrorism are some of the risks that couldtrigger a mistake that leads to confrontation.

“We aren’t on the brink of World War III,” Eurasia said. “Butabsent a global security underwriter, and with a proliferation ofsubnational and non-state actors capable of destabilizing action,the world is a more dangerous place.”

3. Technology cold war

As rapid technological developments reshape the economic andpolitical order, the process will be messy. Fault lines include astruggle for market dominance, fragmentation and a race for newtechnologies.

“As our cars, homes, factories, and public infrastructure beginto generate mountains of data, and as connectivity morphs intoaugmented reality, a new generation of humans will be ‘on the grid’around the clock, with important implications for society andgeopolitics,” Eurasia said. “But until we get there, it’s theworld’s biggest fight over economic power.”

4. Iran

Relations between the U.S. and Iran in 2018 will be a source ofbroad geopolitical and market risk. If the nuclear deal doesn’tsurvive the year, the Middle East could be pushed into a realcrisis.

“Trump has it in for Iran,” Eurasia said. “Rightly or wrongly,he sees the country as the root of much evil in the world.”

5. Protectionism

Protectionism will make further inroads led by populism, statecapitalism and heightened geopolitical tensions. Governments arealso intervening in the digital economy and innovation-intensiveindustries to preserve intellectual property and relatedtechnologies.

“The rise of anti-establishment movements in developed marketshas forced (in some cases, enabled) policy makers to shift toward amore mercantilist approach to global economic competition and tolook as if they’re doing something about lost jobs,” Eurasia said.“Walls are going up.”

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