Blister pack with dollars instead of pills

Just as other products have seen sales and profits go through the roof as people stocked up on goods in response to lockdowns, pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly has not only beat quarterly estimates but also boosted its profit forecast for 2020 as customers have stocked up on such drugs as its diabetes drug Trulicity and psoriasis drug Taltz.

According to a Reuters report, the company did warn that the phenomenon would likely reverse over the course of the year and it could still be hit with a negative impact to drug prices given the toll coronavirus is taking on the economy.

According to Citi Equities analyst Andrew Baum, the outlook could be impacted by long-term unemployment rates, which could reduce the demand for drugs. There's also the possibility that the federal reimbursement for some drugs could be cut.

But despite the warning, other groups fear that the pharmaceutical industry is cashing in on the crisis to boost profits, such as the request from Gilead Pharmaceuticals to have its experimental coronavirus treatment classified as an "orphan" drug. The company later withdrew its request.

But in the midst of a pandemic, the drug industry is likely at least in the short term to see a boost to its bottom lines, as also appears to be the case for health insurers. Long term, of course, the outcome is far from clear, since as Reuters reports the disruption caused by the pandemic is taking a toll on other aspects of the pharmaceutical business—such as many of Lilly's clinical trials, a move that, according to the report, "could hurt future revenue and limit patient access to experimental treatments."

Still, such negative effects aren't expected to last long, with J.P. Morgan analyst Chris Schott saying in the report, "While we could see some negative impact to drug pricing from COVID-19, we see this as fairly manageable and far more muted than the impacts being experienced elsewhere in the broader economy."

In fact, a Barron's report highlights the potential, pandemic or no pandemic, for a profitable future for the drug industry, "given its focus on new products, a promising sales outlook, and low price/earnings ratios" as well as essential "treatments for cancer and other life-threatening diseases."

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Eli Lilly sees 2020 profit rising from drug stockups during pandemic

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