Recession? Probably, but not yet: What plan sponsors need to add to their portfolios now

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An atmosphere of hesitation has loomed over the investment market recently, as investors seek the right place to put their money. That sense of delay is likely to persist through the end of the year due to uncertainty caused by continued high inflation, fear of stagnation and rate equivocation, according to Nuveen Retirement’s second-half 2023 outlook, Testing the waters: From waiting it out to wading in. 

Nuveen said indicators point to a limited U.S. recession in the medium term. The firm said it doesn’t expect a long or severe global recession but a mild recession to emerge next year. The firm’s expectation of moderating inflation this year has materialized, although its expectations for weaker economic growth and higher unemployment have not. However, Nuveen said it still expects U.S. core inflation to be near 4% at year-end, which is double the Fed’s 2% target.