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U.S. employers are doing better than Medicare and Medicaid at holding their spending down, according to new national health spending projections.
Total U.S. spending on employer-sponsored health insurance and related insurance products could rise 5.2% between this year and 2026, to $1.6 trillion, government analysts report.
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The analysts expect Medicaid spending to increase a little faster and Medicare spending to increase much faster, due in part to the aging of the U.S. population.
The number of people covered by employer plans could fall 0.1%, to 177.7 million.
Average spending per enrollee might rise 5.3%, to $8,974.
A team of analysts at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services created the projections to help federal officials run the U.S. government.
Related: The 2025 BenefitsPRO Health Benefits Predictions Almanac
Here's a look at what some other health spending figures could look like in 2026:
Total national health spending: $5.9 trillion (up 5.4%).
Total health spending as a share of U.S. gross domestic product: 18.6% (up from 18.5%).
Medicaid: $1.1 trillion (up 6.8%).
Medicare: $1.3 trillion (up 9.1%).
The National Health Expenditure projections: CMS analysts produce new sets of National Health Expenditures tables and projections tables every year.
The most recent spending figures based on hard data are for 2023. The figures for 2024 and later years are projections.
Long-range projections: Some of the projections in the new tables are for 2033.
Here are what some health figures could look like in 2033:
Total national health spending: $8.6 trillion.
Total health spending as a share of U.S. gross domestic product: 20.3%.
Employer insurance spending: $2.1 trillion.
Employer plan enrollment: 175.4 million.
Employer per-enrollee costs: $12,132.
Medicaid: $2.2 trillion.
Medicare: $1.6 trillion.
The forecasts for 2033 are especially likely to be affected by changes in government policies, health care provider strategies, employer strategies and other factors.
Analysts at the Urban Institute and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation are predicting, for example, that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax and budget package could cut $1.1 trillion in government health spending over 10 years.
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Allison Bell
Allison Bell, a senior reporter at ThinkAdvisor and BenefitsPRO, previously was an associate editor at National Underwriter Life & Health. She has a bachelor's degree in economics from Washington University in St. Louis and a master's degree in journalism from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. She can be reached through X at @Think_Allison.
