Multiple factors are converging to potentially influence 2024 health insurance premium rates. They include inflation, the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency, and shifts in coverage options offered by small employers.

“While there are some recent signs that the top-line inflation that consumers hear about in the news is moderating, higher health care and provider costs are putting upward pressure on premium rates for next year — maybe even more so than when this year’s premium rates were developed in 2022,” said Joyce Bohl, chairperson of the American Academy of Actuaries’ Individual and Small Group Markets Committee, which issued a policy brief titled “Drivers of 2024 Health Insurance Premium Changes” on July 19.

Premium rate changes can vary between individual and small group plans within the same geographic area, and there may be variations between geographic regions. But according to the academy, rate changes within Affordable Care Act-compliant individual and small group health insurance plans for 2024 are generally being driven by the following:

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